Recessions

With the market struggles over the past few months and world events over the past few days, there have been no lack of reasons for investors to be concerned. Here is a quick list in no particular order.

• Inflation – At 7.5%, inflation is at levels not seen since the early ’80’s.
• Consumer confidence – Because of high inflation, consumers are less confident about their financial well-being than they were at the start of the pandemic in 2020.
• Rising interest rates – To try and get inflation back under control, beginning in March, the Fed is expected to incrementally raise interest rates anywhere between 1% – 1.75% through the end of the year.
• Investor confidence – The AAII index of investor sentiment shows investors haven’t been this bearish since the start of the pandemic when the market dropped over 30% in a month.
• Geopolitical instability – Last but certainly not least, Russia has threatened launched an invasion of Ukraine.

(Notice Covid-19 is not on the list. The market has already concluded that this risk is behind us.)

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