No signs of recession at the state level. Seven stocks are driving the market so far this year. Deep thoughts.
GDP & state coincident indicators: Cooling but no recession (The Big Picture)
First quarter GDP came in lower than expected at 1.1%. Does that mean the country is headed for a recession. If so, it’s not imminent according to this piece that shows economic indicators for each individual state.
S&P 500 Attribution
Looking at just the headline performance of the S&P 500 index, you’d think the stock market was having a pretty good year so far. However, 81% of the gains can be attributed to just 7 stocks. The other 496 are only up a collective 1.28%. And no, my math isn’t wrong. According to Wikipedia, there are currently 503 companies in the S&P 500.
Since the index gives more weight to the largest companies, the top 50 companies are typically responsible for most of the index movement. Even so, this is pretty extreme. If we’re truly in the beginning stages of the next bull market, more stocks will need to start participating. Otherwise, this is just a false start.
Some things I think (Morgan Housel)
As usual, Morgan has some interesting things to ponder about success, relationships, wealth, and life in general.
A good bet in economics: the past wasn’t as good as you remember, the present isn’t as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate.
Morgan Housel